Bitcoin’s first positive month of 2026
There’s never a dull moment onchain. Here’s what you need to know this week:
BTC rose in March, its first positive month since 2025. Also: why crypto ETFs dipped last week.
5 analysts on what markets will do next. Crypto has outperformed during the Iran conflict, but can that continue?
Prediction markets on the Final Four. The teams that traders are forecasting to win as the NCAA tournament rolls on.
MARKET BYTES
Bitcoin ended the month up for the first time since September
Bitcoin finally snapped its five-month losing streak on Tuesday when it ended March higher than it began — and also kept an even longer streak alive. “BTC has never recorded 6 consecutive monthly declines in its 17-year history,” noted Compass Point analyst Ed Engel.
BTC has also been holding in a close range since the Iran conflict began, as opposed to most other major asset classes, which have seen steadier losses. As of Tuesday, gold, for instance, was down around 13% for the month.
With the Wall Street Journal reporting that the Trump administration has been signaling interest in ending the conflict, BTC jumped from a weekend low of around $65,000 to around $69,000 on Wednesday, before dipping slightly.
“The market is anticipating that Trump wants out of the war,” Pratik Kala, a portfolio manager at crypto hedge fund Apollo Crypto, told Bloomberg. “Bitcoin’s price has been incredibly sticky around $68,000.”
But given that U.S. troops are also massing in the region, it’s hard to predict what will happen next — although most analysts agree that clear signs of deescalation would be good for crypto prices. As one analyst told Decrypt, “In such a case, Bitcoin could move above $90,000, with Ethereum following, retesting the $2,700 to $2,800 range.”
Here’s more news you should know…
After a four-week winning streak, outflows returned to crypto ETFs
After four straight weeks of inflows — the longest run since last year — BTC ETFs shed around $296 million last week, according to SoSoValue data.
“The outflows coincided with the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict and shifting Federal Reserve rate expectations, as investors priced in potential rate hikes instead of cuts,” the Block noted.
ETH tallied outflows of around $222 million, which Coinshares’ head of research James Butterfill attributed to the ongoing debate over the CLARITY act, a major crypto-legislation bill currently making its way through Congress.
In other ETF news… Hashdex’s diversified NCIQ ETF, which tracks the prices of a bundle of major cryptocurrencies (including BTC, ETH, SOL, and more) launched options trading this week. The move allows institutional investors to “hedge, generate income, and manage risk across a broad basket of digital assets,” CoinDesk reports.
Large percentage of crypto users say they’re confused about U.S. tax obligations
The new 2026 Crypto Tax Readiness Report — a survey of 3,000 crypto users by Cointracker and Coinbase — finds a broad desire to comply with the U.S. tax code, but also broad confusion about actual obligations.
One major area of confusion is the cost-basis reporting required by new 1099-DA tax forms, with only 35% reporting that they’d adjusted their cost basis in the past. This gap isn’t surprising, according to some experts. “This is because everyday activities like stablecoin payments and Ethereum gas fees trigger taxable events, while generating little meaningful tax revenue,” notes CoinDesk.
Other interesting stats: 71% have transferred crypto between wallets or platforms, triggering difficult cost-basis tracking challenges; fewer than 50% of survey respondents know that selling crypto is a taxable event; and 30% said they’d be comfortable using an AI tool for “their entire tax process.”
Land of confusion… “Every stablecoin payment, every small DeFi [decentralized finance] transaction, every gas fee is technically a taxable event,” wrote Coinbase Chief Policy Officer Faryar Shirzad in a recent blog post. “The compliance burden this imposes on ordinary Americans isn't just inconvenient — it's a direct threat to the adoption and innovation the GENIUS Act was designed to unlock.”
TAKES
Crypto has outperformed during the Iran conflict, but what will happen next? 5 top analysts weigh in
Since the start of the Iran conflict, Bitcoin and several major cryptocurrencies have held up better than most other asset classes. Still, there’s no consensus between analysts and traders on what might happen next, especially with a timeline for an end to the conflict uncertain and macro conditions rapidly shifting. Can crypto stay resilient? Or is a downturn on the horizon?
Here’s what analysts and traders had to say.
“Bitcoin specifically and crypto more broadly may prove to be more resilient than other asset classes for the time being,” said David Duong, Coinbase’s Head of Institutional Research in a recent report.
That’s because in the five months since bitcoin began its decline from all-time highs of $126,210, anyone who wanted to sell has likely already sold. The report added that buying demand for bitcoin has been absorbing any increased selling pressure in the weeks since the conflict in Iran began, which indicates “more resilient market positioning.”
"When retail fear and institutional accumulation diverge this sharply, history suggests the institutions tend to be right," said Rachael Lucas, crypto analyst at BTC Markets.
Amid the current downturn, Lucas says, retail investors have been hedging or sitting on the sidelines, while institutions have been accumulating heavily, evidenced by the $1.13 billion in monthly inflows to bitcoin ETFs recorded in the U.S. last month. While that doesn’t mean prices will rebound immediately, “it does mean the structural bid is there, and that matters for where we go in Q2,” Lucas said.
“We believe that crypto prices have more room to fall, with bitcoin potentially falling to the $60K support level,” said Jeff Mei, COO at BTSE.
With the Crypto Fear & Greed Index still in “extreme fear,” and oil and gas prices likely to remain elevated in the short term, Mei says that inflation could persist and hinder economic growth, which could drag on risk assets like bitcoin. Any potential rise in inflation also lowers the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates further this year. After initially projecting at least one rate cut this year, investors now believe the Federal Reserve will most likely hold rates steady for the rest of 2026.
“The crypto winter likely ends when the upside risk to oil prices peaks,” said Tom Lee, CEO of Bitmine Immersion Technologies.
With crypto outperforming equities, and gold underperforming, Lee says that crypto is “demonstrating itself to be a good ‘war time’ store of value.” Still, he says that rising oil prices remain a headwind for risk assets and noted that the inverse correlation of crypto and stocks to oil is at its highest levels in the past year.
“Digital assets began reflecting tighter financial conditions ahead of many traditional risk assets,” said Luke Deans, senior research associate at Bitwise.
That means that while stocks began the year at elevated prices, crypto was already months into a steep downturn. Historically, Deans says, assets that have already seen massive declines in valuations have reduced downside risk, even as other risk asset positions are reduced. Stocks meanwhile, began the year at “elevated valuation levels and have only more recently begun to reprice as macro conditions deteriorated.”
METHOD TO THE MADNESS
With another tournament almost in the books, we’re down to the Final Four this weekend and the championship game next week.
So far, traders have placed more than $150 million in predictions on the last three games of the tournament. Here’s what they think will happen.
Who will win: Illinois vs. UConn
55%, Illinois
What markets say: Traders have placed around $2.4 million in predictions on the matchup between Illinois, coming off a 12-point win over Iowa, and UConn, which upset overall top seed Duke with a game-winning three last weekend. Traders see a close game though: if Illinois wins, traders see just a 48% probability of them winning by more than 2.5 points.
What analysts say: “The Illini's offense is one of the most efficient in KenPom history, but it was their defense that sparked this run to Indianapolis. They have protected the rim and the paint at an incredibly high level.” — ESPN
Who will win: Michigan vs. Arizona
53%, Michigan
What markets say: Traders have placed around $1.7 million in predictions so far on the matchup between the last two No. 1 seeds left. Since the market opened on Sunday, the probabilities have oscillated, with traders assigning Arizona a 50% chance of winning at one point on Monday morning.
What analysts say: “Michigan has felt all year [that] if it plays its A-game, it can beat anyone in the country. Arizona will certainly put that to the test. But this Michigan team, led by Yaxel Lendeborg, who has had his best month of the season, is on a mission.” – The Detroit Free Press
Who will be the Men’s College Basketball Champion?
Tied at 34%, Arizona and Michigan
What markets say: Traders have placed more than $150 million in predictions on who will be crowned the winner. With Arizona and Michigan being assigned equal probabilities, traders believe it’s likely that the winner of that matchup will be the champion overall. Illinois has been assigned an 18% probability to win it all, and UConn a 13% probability.
What analysts say: “The Arizona-Michigan semifinal will be the de facto national championship game. They looked like the two best teams all tournament. Slight advantage to Arizona, a team without weakness. Everyone in the Wildcats' starting five averages in double figures scoring.” — USA Today.
TOKEN TRIVIA
How frequent are Bitcoin halvings?
A
Every six months
B
Every six years
C
Once per decade
D
Every four years
Find the answer below.
Trivia Answer
D
Every four years
Coinbase Bytes
Your weekly digest of crypto news
Learn how we collect your information by visiting our Privacy Policy
